Category

Stock Market

Zach Abraham Appears on Yahoo! Finance

By | Investments, Stock Market

Zach Abraham, Principal and Chief Investment Officer of Bulwark Capital Management, appeared on Yahoo! Finance on March 13 to discuss the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on stock markets.

 

Back on March 13, the date of this interview, Seattle was the area of the United States hit first by the coronavirus—it was right on the front line with the COVID-19 outbreak. (Seattle is located about 34 miles from Bulwark Capital Management’s headquarters in Tacoma, Washington.) During the interview, Zach Abraham predicted at the time that people “might not be taking [the virus] seriously enough,” though the stock market certainly already was.

That afternoon, the government was expected to announce measures to help the economy, and Zach said that government intervention might stem the market sell off and help move markets to the positive. “We have a market that’s been fueled by the central banks’ intervention for the last decade, so there is a ‘Pavlovian’ psychological response built-in for that.”

But he warned about the long-term. “No one has a crystal ball, but one of the things we’ve been talking about for the last several years is that eventually the world is going to have to face some issues—something that more debt and printed money won’t fix.” For example, the drop in oil demand is just one example of how the corporate high-yield debt market could become a future negative factor for markets.

But with any economic crisis, It’s never just one thing or one issue at play. “I personally think that it will be at least a six- to eight-month timeline or longer to see the full effects of this market—to get economic clarity in terms of what the real backdrop is.”

 

Watch the full episode at this link:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/more-government-injects-more-movement-164456333.html

Stock Market Volatility: It Helps to Look Backward

By | Stock Market

Obviously, many of our clients are worried about the news, the headlines about coronavirus, and the drops in the stock market happening at the time of this writing.

As you know, our firm focuses a lot of attention on protecting your savings as you near retirement. But for some of our clients (depending on their unique circumstances), part of their portfolio—and/or part of their 401(k) or other retirement funds—are still subject to stock market risk. The reason for this is that based on historic return data: the stock market can offer the highest returns over time, and so might still be part of your overall retirement plan design.

The Stock Market Is a Long-Term Strategy

Some of our clients are all set with their retirement income plan, so their concerns are not for themselves. They are worried about their children and grandchildren, and how the stock market drops will hurt their loved ones’ finances.

We would like to remind everyone that it’s helpful to look backward.

The first market crash happened in Europe in 1634, when Dutch tulips bottomed out. (There’s a period movie called “Tulip Fever” that dramatized this one.) In the United States, the first major crash (and worst so far) happened in 1929. It took America 12 years to recover from the “Great Depression,” but we did recover, and went on to enjoy some of the greatest prosperity in our history.

But we’ve weathered more recent stock market collapses, too. Like the one in 1987 when “Black Monday” brought the largest single-day market loss in U.S. history. And there was the Dot.com bust of 2000. And of course, the “Great Recession” of 2008.

The thing is, historically every eight years or so we have experienced some sort of market correction. We were well overdue for this current market volatility; it’s been 12 years of experiencing primarily a bull market since 2008. Our firm has been talking with our clients about the possibility of a market correction for the last four years; indeed, we’ve been planning for it.

We view the stock market as just one of the tools in your financial planning arsenal—the tool with the longest timeline. To quote Warren Buffett: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

In other words, although no one can predict the future, based on historic market performance your children and grandchildren probably have time to recover, and most likely, prosper. (This might even be a good time for them to pick up some bargains, depending on their circumstances.)

For you, if you do not have a retirement plan in place to help balance growth plus protection of your assets in volatile times, please call us. There are options to investing in the market.

Contact Bulwark Capital Management in Tacoma, Washington at 253.509.0395. We look forward to speaking with you!

 

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Zach Abraham Discusses the Coronavirus Outbreak’s Impact on Markets

By | Market Risk, Stock Market

Zach Abraham again appeared on Cheddar.com, a show broadcasting live from the New York Stock Exchange, to discuss the effect that the coronavirus outbreak is having on stock markets.

As the coronavirus spreads around the globe, it continues to drag down markets. Zach says one of the biggest misconceptions out there is that the coronavirus outbreak might be a transient threat. The central banks may not be able to stop the losses by “juicing” markets with more cash, because both the supply chain from China and the demand side from consumers are being hit.

There are anomalies all over the market when you examine the data; it’s not just the Treasurys we should be looking at. Corporations are at record levels of debt, which has tripled since 2007. And this debt is at its lowest quality in history, with over 50% of it rated lower than BBB. The spread between debt and earnings, as well as negative cash flows, are also of concern.

Watch the full episode here: 


 

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ABOUT CHEDDAR.COM

Cheddar is a streaming digital video service that broadcasts live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) daily. Focused on business-minded millennials, the service highlights tech and consumer stocks while also covering the intersection of tech, media, news and culture.

 

Follow this link to the Cheddar.com web page: https://cheddar.com/media/coronavirus-crushes-markets-outlook-for

Zach Abraham Discusses the Phase One China Trade Deal

By | Investments, Stock Market

On January 13, Zach Abraham appeared on Cheddar.com, a show which broadcasts live from the New York Stock Exchange, to discuss phase one of the trade deal which at that time had just been negotiated between China and the United States.

In the broadcast, Zach Abraham, Principal and Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, made the point that he sees the actions of the Federal Reserve and other central banks in pumping money into markets as more important and meaningful in terms of market performance than phase one of the trade deal with China.

Zach says tech stocks, the energy sector, the upcoming presidential election, and other economic factors are also at play. Watch the full episode here:

 

ABOUT CHEDDAR.COM
Cheddar is a streaming digital video service that broadcasts live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) daily. Focused on business-minded millennials, the service highlights tech and consumer stocks while also covering the intersection of tech, media, news and culture.

Follow this link to the Cheddar.com web page: https://cheddar.com/media/u-s-and-china-expected-to-sign-phase-one-trade-deal-wednesday

Did the Fed and the White House Come to a Meeting of the Minds?

By | Bonds, Investments, Stock Market

On November 18, President Donald Trump invited Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell to meet at the White House with him and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Afterwards Trump tweeted, “Just finished a very good & cordial meeting at the White House with Jay Powell of the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.”

While the Fed released a statement saying that the meeting covered “the economy, growth, employment and inflation,” the Fed said Powell’s remarks “were consistent” with those he made at last week’s congressional hearings. “[Powell] did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming information that bears on the outlook for the economy.” Powell told the president that monetary policy decisions will be “based solely on careful, objective and non-political analysis,” the statement said.

Zach Abraham, principal/CIO at Bulwark Capital Management, told reporters at the Bondbuyer.com that, “This is simply a case of Trump throwing everything at the Fed but the kitchen sink. If we really want to keep China in check, the Fed and the White House must be on the same page. Beijing and the PBOC have strategically exploited Fed Independence and the inherent lag between monetary policy and economic reality on the ground.

“I’d assume Trump is merely trying to close this gap and make nice with Powell as he’s realized the need to be on the same page. I just don’t think the White House has realized that lower U.S. rates and a lower dollar are precisely what Beijing wants,” said Abraham.

Read the entire article here: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/whats-behind-trump-powell-meeting

ABOUT THE PUBLICATION

The bondbuyer.com is designed for municipal finance professionals, bond issuers, government officials, investors and other decision makers in the municipal bond industry; the website receives nearly 59,000 unique visitors per month. It provides breaking news, analysis and data regarding all areas of municipal finance. The site features news on the national as well as regional levels, and it contains market statistics, graphs, charts, photos and weekly indices.

How Will Lower Interest Rates Affect the Bond Market?

By | Bonds, Investments, Stock Market

On October 31, along with other financial industry experts,  Zach Abraham, Principal and Chief Investment Officer for Bulwark Capital Management was asked to weigh in regarding the Federal Reserve’s recent lowering of interest rates.

At that time, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell had just made it clear the Fed expected to keep rates at a range of 1.50% to 1.75% unless events resulted in a “material reassessment” of the Fed’s outlook.

“While the rate cut certainly means that yields on treasuries are headed lower, it may not be so for the rest of the bond market,” said Zach Abraham, principal/CIO at Bulwark Capital Management.

“At some point in this cycle we will see spreads blow out. It’s inevitable, as it occurs in every cycle. Flight to safety puts a bid under treasuries while corporates are shunned as weakening economic fundamentals raise risks, or at least perceived risks, of corporate defaults.”

He called Powell’s claim that the Fed is on pause “a bit humorous.” The Fed trimmed the rate target by 75 basis points in the past three meetings and “launched a $100 billion standing repo facility (just quantitative easing by another name). It’s time we all face the facts. The Fed has a tiger by the tail and has no clue how to let go,” Abraham said. “Investors, as well as the market, are beginning to figure this out. Barring some exogenous/inflationary shock, we’re headed back to the zero bound.”

Read the entire article here: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/how-feds-pause-will-impact-bond-market

ABOUT THE PUBLICATION

The bondbuyer.com is designed for municipal finance professionals, bond issuers, government officials, investors and other decision makers in the municipal bond industry; the website receives nearly 59,000 unique visitors per month. It provides breaking news, analysis and data regarding all areas of municipal finance. The site features news on the national as well as regional levels, and it contains market statistics, graphs, charts, photos and weekly indices.